The Cost and The Payoff#

What about the money? Current estimates from folks at NASA and companies in the private sector suggest we could build a Moon base for around 20 to 40 billion dollars. This cost would be spread out over about a decade.

To give you an idea of the scale:

• That price is comparable to what the International Space Station (ISS) cost.
• It’s also similar to the budget surplus Germany had in 2017.

So, when you look at it, it’s not really that huge an investment in the grand scheme of things.

The rewards, however, would be absolutely massive – immeasurable, even.

• The Moon would be like a giant sandbox for us to play in, developing all sorts of new technologies.
• We could tap into practically unlimited resources found there.
• It would kick off a brand new space race.
• This project would lay the groundwork for us to eventually venture out into the wider solar system and beyond.
• It would lead to a ton of new technologies that would make life better for us here on Earth.
• And the best part? We would all get to be a part of this incredible journey.

So, Why Aren’t We Doing It?#

Sadly, getting governments excited about long-term projects that invest in humanity’s future can be tough.

But hey, let’s just imagine we are doing it. If we started today, how would we actually build a Moon base?

(Here comes the cool intro music from Kurzgesagt, maybe done in collaboration with BRILLIANT)

The Phases of Colonization#

Throughout history, when people have explored and settled new places, it’s typically happened in stages.

Think back to the age of exploring the “new world” here on Earth, for example:

1. Phase One: European kings and queens would fund expeditions. The goal was to chart lands, discover things, and claim territory. They’d plant a flag, maybe set up a small camp, but they didn’t stick around permanently.
2. Phase Two: Smaller missions would follow, setting up actual outposts and settlements. These were still very reliant on their home countries for supplies. Some failed, but others managed to survive and establish a lasting presence.
3. Phase Three: Only after Phase Two was successful did a true colony form. This is when tradesmen and laborers would move there, creating new wealth and opportunities for themselves and their families. They’d even send a lot of that wealth back to their countries of origin.

When we eventually colonize the Moon, we’ll likely go through these very same three phases. The good news? This time, hopefully, we can do it without hurting millions of innocent people along the way.

The Harsh Reality of the Moon#

Let’s be clear: the Moon is not a nice, welcoming place for living things.

• A Moon day is incredibly long, lasting about 29 Earth days.
• The temperature difference between sunlight and shade can be a massive 300 degrees Celsius!
• There’s no atmosphere to protect us from incoming meteorites (big or small) or dangerous cosmic radiation.
• Worst of all, the surface is covered in a layer of really unpleasant, jagged dust.

The Moon is hard. But you know what? We humans are pretty good at doing hard things.

Phase One: Proving We Can Get There (Already Done!)#

The very first phase of lunar colonization was all about showing that we could reach this new world. This phase actually started 60 years ago with the famous Apollo missions.

Since those early days:

• Satellites, like the American Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, have made detailed maps of the Moon.
• Rovers, like China’s Yutu (玉兔), have studied what the lunar surface is made of, searching for things like water ice and metals.

Basically, Phase One is pretty much complete. We have the knowledge we need to move into Phase Two.

Phase Two: Building the First Base (Starting Today)#

In the second phase, astronauts will actually build the very first Moon base. And this could realistically begin today. Getting a small base up and running could be done in about a decade.

The first nation that manages to establish this base will be doing something similar to the first nations who built outposts in the new world about 500 years ago.

Because it’s really expensive to send rockets to the Moon, we’ll aim to send up as little weight as possible initially.

• The base will be light, probably just inflatable habitats.
• It will house crews of no more than 12 people.
• It will be set up somewhere with natural shelter.
  • Good spots include caves (like underground lava tube tunnels).
  • Or craters near the poles, where the sunlight lasts for six months straight (well, the “days” are six months long).

These first astronauts won’t stay permanently at first. The habitat might even be left empty between missions because the solar panels can’t make power during the long lunar night.

But their work is crucial! They will lay the groundwork so humans can eventually stay forever.

What Happens in Phase Two?#

The initial crew will be scientists and engineers.

• They’ll study what the Moon is made of.
• Their experiments will focus on figuring out how to use the stuff they find on the Moon (called lunar material).

Here’s where things get exciting:

• They’ll work on things like purifying the lunar ice they find and turning it into water for people to use. Water is essential, not just for drinking!
• They can use water to experiment with growing plants for food.
• Hydrogen fuel cells could be used to store power during the long night, allowing astronauts to stay longer.
• Most importantly, water can be split into hydrogen and oxygen. These are the main ingredients for rocket fuel!

By getting water from the Moon and putting the fuel it creates into orbit, the Moon base could supply a fueling station (an orbital depot). This depot could refuel scientific missions heading to Mars and the outer solar system. Getting things off the Moon and into orbit is much easier and cheaper than launching from Earth. So, colonizing Mars might actually start by using the Moon!

The Transition to a True Colony (Phase Three)#

Even with all that important work, the Phase Two base isn’t a true colony yet. It would likely be abandoned if the funding dried up.

For our base to grow into Phase Three, into a true colony, it needs to become self-sufficient. It needs to support itself, perhaps by sending things back to Earth (exports).

This is where private contractors come in, looking to make money from lunar resources and providing services to the base. If making rocket fuel in space is cheaper, what else could they profit from?

• They could extract precious metals, which are common in impact craters.
• They could gather other raw materials from the lunar dust (regolith).

One really promising idea is mining Helium-3. This is a special type of helium that might one day be used in nuclear fusion reactors for clean energy. The Chinese lunar exploration program is actually looking into this right now. Future colonists could potentially export Helium-3 back to Earth, providing us with cheap, clean fusion energy.

Another possibility? Asteroids could even be guided into the Moon’s orbit and then mined for their materials.

With commercial exports going back to Earth, the colony is fully in its Phase Three: it’s self-sufficient and making money (economically productive).

Building with Moon Stuff#

As the base grows, it will start using lunar material for construction projects. This is key if it’s going to keep expanding. Luckily, the lunar soil has everything you need to make concrete.

• Robotic mining rigs can sift through the lunar dust, even looking for organic molecules.
• These robots could be used to build huge structures that would be way too big and heavy to bring all the way from Earth.
• Advances in 3D printing technology will make it possible to create almost anything else the crews need right there on the Moon.

It’s tough to say exactly when a colony becomes totally self-sustaining. The growth is gradual: experiments turn into actual industries, and the population slowly climbs into the hundreds.

The people living there won’t just be scientists anymore. You’ll find:

• Engineers
• Pilots
• Contractors (representing different countries and companies)

A Social Milestone#

Among these hundreds of people, two of them will achieve something truly groundbreaking. Not a scientific discovery, but a social one: they will have the first child born extraterrestrially – the first baby born on the Moon.

Throughout human history, the birth of the first child in a new settlement was always celebrated. It was the moment the seed of a colony finally and irreversibly took root. On the Moon, this would mean it’s no longer just a place for scientists and engineers to work; it’s a place for people to live, to raise a family.

Once this social shift happens, the colony will likely grow much faster. They’ll build:

• More habitats
• Schools
• Farms
• And everything else needed to support a growing population.

New Technologies and Future Possibilities#

As the colony expands, they’ll invent all sorts of new technologies just to keep things running.

• They might develop crops that are really good at recycling carbon dioxide.
• Or plants that can grow with very little water.
• They might figure out how to recycle and reuse 100% of their waste.

These kinds of technologies are incredibly valuable and could benefit Earth immensely.

They could even build the very first space elevator in the entire solar system! With a space elevator, spacecraft, astronauts, and raw materials could travel back and forth from lunar orbit without needing to use rockets at all.

The Moon could become a major center for economic activity, on a scale that’s hard to even imagine right now.

Who Owns the Moon Colony?#

It’s hard to say who will ultimately own the colony at this stage.

• Will the first person born on the Moon have the same national identity as their parents?
• Or will a new generation blend together into a completely new lunar society?

There are existing international treaties that say no one nation can own the Moon. These treaties will definitely need to be updated eventually. When they are, will the colonists living there have a say? Will they perhaps declare independence from Earth?

Why The Moon, Why Now?#

However it all unfolds, the Moon is the perfect “sandbox” for us to learn how to colonize the rest of the Solar System. It’s a perfect project that could potentially unify nations. And, if something truly terrible were to happen here on Earth, establishing ourselves on the Moon is the only real way to help guarantee our survival as a species.

If we ever hope to spread out and perhaps colonize the Milky Way galaxy someday, we have to start somewhere.

So, why not start there? Why not start now?