The Job Market Puzzle: Openings vs. Job Seekers
So right now, things are a bit confusing in the job market. We’ve got about 8.2 million job openings across America. At the same time, there are roughly 7 million people actively looking for a job. Plus, you’ve got millions more who’ve just stopped looking altogether, feeling discouraged.
Despite all these people wanting work, companies are still complaining they can’t find the right folks they need.
The Go-To Explanation: The “Skills Gap”
There’s one explanation you hear over and over for this situation: the “skills gap.”
It’s called a skills gap, a skill gap, or sometimes a skill shortage. You might also hear it linked to structural unemployment.
The basic idea is simple and seems logical: people are looking for work, jobs are available, but the skills people have just don’t match what the jobs require. Like, a hospital needs a doctor, but the only job seeker around has a computer science degree. Obviously, that doctor job won’t get filled by that person, no matter how much they studied.
This “skills gap” idea is a neat, tidy way to explain a big problem. It’s appealing because it neatly puts the blame for labor market troubles right on the workers themselves – saying they haven’t gotten the right training or experience.
But here’s the catch: this explanation is, for the most part, almost entirely made up.
The Problem with the “Skills Gap” Idea
The skills gap explanation is often a convenient excuse that gets used to sweep bigger issues under the rug by businesses, politicians, and even economic reports.
One of the first big problems with this idea? It seems to disappear when times are good.
- Research Says: Economists from Harvard, Northern University, and the Federal Reserve looked at over 36 million job postings over 3 years. They found something pretty striking: the skills and experience companies asked for in job ads went up and down almost perfectly with the unemployment rate.
- In Plain English: When lots of people were looking for jobs (high unemployment), companies suddenly started asking for way more skills and experience for roles. This is when you start hearing all the noise about a “skills gap.” But when unemployment is low and not many people are applying, suddenly the skills gap isn’t such a big deal. Companies are just happy to hire whoever they can find.
Now, legally, companies can generally ask for whatever skills they want (as long as they aren’t discriminating based on protected groups). If unemployment is high and they can be super picky, well, that’s just how some businesses operate.
But using the myth of the skills gap goes beyond just being picky. It’s often used to justify some not-so-good things.
How the Skills Gap Myth Is Used
1. Justifying Lower Wages
When companies post a job with ridiculously high skill requirements and don’t get applicants who meet that super high bar, they can go back to the best available applicant (who maybe doesn’t meet every requirement) and offer them a lower salary or fewer benefits than originally advertised.
They point to the “gaps” in the applicant’s skills as the reason for the lower offer. While this is kind of just a negotiation tactic, the skills gap myth makes it much easier for companies to get away with paying less.
- Example: IT Help Desk: A report by MIT looked into this. They found that most jobs advertised in America ask for skills that aren’t actually necessary for the job itself. They specifically looked at IT help desk technicians, who deal with computers. Many companies ask for programming skills for these roles. The thing is, most IT help desk folks don’t actually use programming day-to-day. Companies just seem to assume “computers equal code” and stick it in the requirements.
- Contrast: Manufacturing: The MIT report found programming was about as useful in manufacturing plants as in IT help desk jobs. But guess what? Factory machine operators were much more likely to get on-the-job training on how to program their machines than IT workers, who were just expected to already know how to code.
2. Lobbying and Policy Influence
Using the skills gap myth goes much further than just lowering wages. It’s a powerful tool for lobbying on big issues like migration policy, education funding, and workplace protections. These are worth looking at because you’ll likely hear arguments based on the “skills gap” popping up in these discussions.
3. Problematic Assumptions About Retraining
If there were really tons of good-paying jobs sitting empty just because of a skills gap, you’d expect people to naturally retrain to fill those roles to earn more and feel more secure in their jobs, right? That’s how the market is supposed to work. But it’s not happening, and there are problems with this assumption.
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The Pay Isn’t There: Many of the jobs where people claim there’s a skills gap in America don’t actually pay well. A report by the Society for Human Resource Management listed some of the hardest roles to fill: nursing, teaching, the trades, and social service work.
- Most jobs in these fields don’t pay enough to live comfortably in a major city, especially for entry-level workers.
- The trades can be good eventually, but apprentice tradespeople don’t make much until they are fully qualified. Even then, they often need lots of overtime or to own their own business to make a truly comfortable living wage in many areas.
- Teachers and nurses often need a college degree (where they earn nothing while studying) and on-the-job training before making any money.
- On top of that, these jobs often involve extreme stress, brutal schedules, and a general lack of respect.
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Is It Worth It?: Think about it – putting your career on hold, potentially spending tens of thousands on a degree, and then dealing with difficult or even dangerous patients or children isn’t very appealing if the pay isn’t keeping up with the demand.
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It’s Not a Skill Shortage, It’s a Pay Shortage: There isn’t a shortage of skills needed for these jobs; there’s a shortage of people willing to do difficult work for inadequate pay. Even skilled people already in these roles are leaving because they can find easier jobs that pay the same or better.
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The Tech Contrast: Look at the computer science boom in the 2000s. The tech industry was growing fast and genuinely needed coders. The appeal of high pay, respected jobs, and good work-life balance motivated many smart people to train and move into that field, filling a real need because there was a clear reward. Now? There are actually too many qualified programmers, and hundreds of thousands have been laid off as the tech industry has slowed down. Just 5 years ago, they were being told there weren’t enough programmers and companies were desperate to hire them fast.
So, the idea that empty jobs are just waiting to be filled and the only barrier is a lack of skills can be misleading and even dangerous.
4. The Profit Motive
Fixing this supposed skills gap is incredibly profitable for some.
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Politicians: Talking about retraining programs scores easy political points.
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Companies: They can shift the responsibility (and cost) of training new staff onto the workers themselves or onto government programs.
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The Training Industry: The market research firm Allied Market Research valued the corporate training market at over 800 billion by 2035. That’s a massive industry! It relies heavily on people believing they are just one course or certificate away from landing a great job that’s just waiting for them. This is separate from traditional colleges and trade schools, which have their own financial complexities.
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Siemens Example: The industrial equipment maker Siemens actually paid for an article in The Atlantic talking directly to policymakers, saying apprenticeships were the key to closing the skills gap. Now, apprenticeships are genuinely good. But the reason Siemens paid for that article wasn’t purely for the good of labor policy; it was to create a new pool of skilled workers for them to hire from.
5. Justifying Immigration (The Most Controversial Part)
This is perhaps the most sensitive way the skills gap is used. It’s used to justify immigration.
Now, immigration is a hot topic, and people have strong feelings. You can definitely argue for careful immigration policies without resorting to extreme anti-immigrant views.
However, the skills gap has been used to push for a lot of skilled migration. This has been quite significant in the US, but even more noticeable in places like Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany, and New Zealand.
- Why Companies Like It: Companies favor this because it lets them fill roles without having to increase salaries much (no upward pressure on wages). Plus, more people in the country means more customers for their products.
- How the Myth Helps: When the skills gap is highlighted as a major national problem, especially in sensitive areas, it makes it easier to wave through immigration policies as something absolutely essential to keep the country functioning.
- US Skilled Visas: In America, H1B and eb3 skilled working visas are common ways for companies to bring in foreign workers for jobs they claim can’t be filled by Americans. There are rules meant to protect American workers, but if companies create an artificial skills gap by setting unreasonably high requirements, it becomes easier to argue they have to hire from overseas.
- Loyalty Factor: Workers on these visas are often dependent on their sponsoring company to stay in the country. Who do you think is more likely to be a loyal employee who won’t easily switch jobs or complain about conditions?
Other Perspectives and Resources
It’s important to hear different viewpoints on these complex issues.
A smaller YouTube channel called The Market Exit did a great video a few months back offering a “politically incorrect” view on migration, focusing specifically on Europe. While not everyone might agree with everything they say, it’s really valuable to hear arguments that challenge the mainstream narrative. Their videos definitely deserve more attention. Instead of just pushing my own stuff, I recommend checking out their video on this topic.
I will, however, shamelessly plug my newsletter! This week, we’re publishing an article about people who actually can’t afford to retire but are doing it anyway. Make sure you sign up for the newsletter so you can keep learning how money works.
- Video URL Mentioned:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_Bb2EdX2_0(Note: This URL was in the original text but doesn’t fit neatly into the structured flow as a main topic. It’s included here as it was present).
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